LHO leads the ♥9, after some thought. Clearly this contract is going to make, but it's pairs so overtricks are important. How do you play, and why?
Playing for overtricks in 3NT
#1
Posted 2011-August-30, 19:17
LHO leads the ♥9, after some thought. Clearly this contract is going to make, but it's pairs so overtricks are important. How do you play, and why?
#2
Posted 2011-August-30, 19:38
dcrc2, on 2011-August-30, 19:17, said:
LHO leads the ♥9, after some thought. Clearly this contract is going to make, but it's pairs so overtricks are important. How do you play, and why?
♥ K J is offside if the lead is honest. If you go up with the A and knock down ♣ A, if West takes and plays another ♥ they will score 1♣+2♥ for +430. You need to take the ♥ finesse, which will lose, but now defense can not continue ♥ and can never take 3rd trick, you safely knock ♣A for +460 (assuming ♦ behave).
"It's only when a mosquito lands on your testicles that you realize there is always a way to solve problems without using violence!"
"Well to be perfectly honest, in my humble opinion, of course without offending anyone who thinks differently from my point of view, but also by looking into this matter in a different perspective and without being condemning of one's view's and by trying to make it objectified, and by considering each and every one's valid opinion, I honestly believe that I completely forgot what I was going to say."
#3
Posted 2011-August-30, 20:06
The ♥9 is not normal and presents a curious problem
On any other lead I have 12 or 13 tricks, 6♦, 3♣, and at least 3 Major suit tricks. So making 4 or 5 gets me the same bottom score.
Therefore I play the ♥Q knowing its the only play to get me a decent score.
#4
Posted 2011-August-30, 20:09
jmcw, on 2011-August-30, 20:06, said:
The ♥9 is not normal and presents a curious problem
On any other lead I have 12 or 13 tricks, 6♦, 3♣, and at least 3 Major suit tricks. So making 4 or 5 gets me the same bottom score.
Therefore I play the ♥Q knowing its the only play to get me a decent score.
MrAce, on 2011-August-30, 19:38, said:
"It's only when a mosquito lands on your testicles that you realize there is always a way to solve problems without using violence!"
"Well to be perfectly honest, in my humble opinion, of course without offending anyone who thinks differently from my point of view, but also by looking into this matter in a different perspective and without being condemning of one's view's and by trying to make it objectified, and by considering each and every one's valid opinion, I honestly believe that I completely forgot what I was going to say."
#5
Posted 2011-August-31, 00:02
You can play for any of the above scenarios by rising with HA at trick 1 and immediately playing on Clubs. This does however result in just the one overtrick if the H9 is doubleton, the opening leader has the CA, and he correctly continues with another H (which is likely) when in with the CA. Then you look a bit sick because there is a guaranteed line for 11 tricks as already stated. However, to play for the certain 11 pretty much gives up on 12.
I don't think it is particularly obvious whether you should play for a certain 11 or to play for 10 or 12. In a vacuum, a priori the H9 is more likely to be top of doubleton than a singleton. This ignores the fact that arguably a singleton 9 lead may be, on the bidding, more attractive than a doubleton. If the opening leader decides to lead a shortage, and not through strengh but up to declarer's bid suit, instead of leading an expected length in Spades, then it may be interesting to ask yourself why. Typically, you lead shortage rather than length because you lack an entry to your long suit. This suggests that RHO is better than 50% likely to be holding the CA, which argues for rising with the HA and hoping that RHO leads Spades when in with the CA in the hope that he can get partner to lead a second Heart through the Queen, and thereby going to bed with the HK.
Another factor to consider is that the H9 is unlikely to be a universal choice of opening lead, across the rest of the room. If most declarers are getting a Spade lead, they have an easy 12 tricks provided that RHO does not have all 5 outstanding Diamonds. That Diamond break is extremely unlikely, particularly if the Heart lead is from shortage. If the rest of the room is making 12 tricks than you will score roughly the same matchpoints regardless of whether you make 10 or 11. You need 12 just to score an average (OK there may be a few in 6 going down).
On balance, therefore, I vote for rising with the HA at trick 1 and playing on Clubs. Is this typical of an B/I standard question?
Psyche (pron. sahy-kee): The human soul, spirit or mind (derived, personification thereof, beloved of Eros, Greek myth).
Masterminding (pron. mstr-mnding) tr. v. - Any bid made by bridge player with which partner disagrees.
"Gentlemen, when the barrage lifts." 9th battalion, King's own Yorkshire light infantry,
2000 years earlier: "morituri te salutant"
"I will be with you, whatever". Blair to Bush, precursor to invasion of Iraq
#6
Posted 2011-August-31, 01:56
Why can't west have KJ9? That would be a far better lead than stiff 9. Even if west never has KJ9, surely there is a chance that someone else in the field will lead a heart if our LHO does. It would be a shame to lose to that guy because I popped ace.
#7
Posted 2011-August-31, 03:08
If RHO wins this trick, he can't play ♥ back unless he wants to try and force an error in the defense. So our 11 tricks are safe.
#8
Posted 2011-August-31, 05:09
JLOGIC, on 2011-August-31, 01:56, said:
I hear what you are saying, and acknowledge the possibility, but I am unpersuaded by the conclusion. If he has led the 9 from KJ9 into a suit bid by declarer then I will bestow my congratulations at the end of the hand, but I will not expect it to be replicated by a significant number of players.
Some of the room may be in slam, some making, some failing, but we cannot influence our score against them (other than by going down in 3N, which is not going to happen on any line). Of those others who are in 3N I am expecting that the overwhelming majority will make 12 ticks, either because it is played by North or because they do not get a Heart lead or because they make the correct decision following a Heart lead or because the opponents misdefend by failing to cash the Heart King immediately on obtaining the lead with Club Ace. Accordingly I am underwhelmed with any concerns about the possibility of making just 10 tricks when I might have guaranteed 11. So for me it is all down to how likely it is that he has underled the King, and as I say I will congratulate him if he did but will not play him for it.
Psyche (pron. sahy-kee): The human soul, spirit or mind (derived, personification thereof, beloved of Eros, Greek myth).
Masterminding (pron. mstr-mnding) tr. v. - Any bid made by bridge player with which partner disagrees.
"Gentlemen, when the barrage lifts." 9th battalion, King's own Yorkshire light infantry,
2000 years earlier: "morituri te salutant"
"I will be with you, whatever". Blair to Bush, precursor to invasion of Iraq
#9
Posted 2011-August-31, 05:59
JLOGIC, on 2011-August-31, 01:56, said:
Completely agree. Rising with the ace is hopefully something that people would only do in forum posts, it's just awful.
- hrothgar
#10
Posted 2011-August-31, 09:05
I´d play the QH at T1. LHO´s tank might mean a tricky lead from K9x or something like that.
By the way, too bad we couldn't find 6D on these cards.
Winner - BBO Challenge bracket #6 - February, 2017.
#11
Posted 2011-August-31, 14:43
At least I can hope that East can't continue to attack the heart suit because of the ♥10 in hand.
#12
Posted 2011-August-31, 15:49
I do still think that, playing against typical club opponents, it's a mistake to play the queen. Never mind the singleton ♥9 possibility, you have an excellent chance of a misdefence. If East has the ♣A he's almost bound to go wrong and return a spade. If West has it, I supsect he'll still return a spade some of the time, and even if he plays a second heart there will be some Easts who don't cash their third trick. If you play the ♥Q at trick one, no defenders on earth can go wrong - you'll make +460, and that is a bottom score.
But I still totally misanalysed the hand, because even if I'm right about these opponents, a hand which you need to know who the opponents are doesn't belong in this forum. Sorry! Hope it was interesting in some way.
#13
Posted 2011-August-31, 17:28
1eyedjack, on 2011-August-31, 05:09, said:
Some of the room may be in slam, some making, some failing, but we cannot influence our score against them (other than by going down in 3N, which is not going to happen on any line). Of those others who are in 3N I am expecting that the overwhelming majority will make 12 ticks, either because it is played by North or because they do not get a Heart lead or because they make the correct decision following a Heart lead or because the opponents misdefend by failing to cash the Heart King immediately on obtaining the lead with Club Ace. Accordingly I am underwhelmed with any concerns about the possibility of making just 10 tricks when I might have guaranteed 11. So for me it is all down to how likely it is that he has underled the King, and as I say I will congratulate him if he did but will not play him for it.
You are playing for them to lead stiff 9 of declarer's suit against 3N lol. You act like there is some chance that this is happening. I am "unpersuaded" by the argument of, oh no, we're *****ed, let's just make real sure that we are *****ed as a reaction to it. If there is no chance they have stiff 9, popping with the ace can never be right.
I will say it again, if our LHO has chosen to lead from 9xx of hearts, why is there zero chance that someone else will do it? We are going to lose half a matchpoint against those people. You act like them leading from 9xx or 9x or KJ9 is super ridiculous, yet you are playing for them to have led from stiff 9. Stiff 9! I will take my chances with a small chance rather than a zero percent chance.
Quote
On the other hand, this is a very legitimate reason to go up with the ace. Well done. This argument may have swayed me.
#14
Posted 2011-August-31, 18:06
But as JLOGIC said (and I didn't consider) maybe there are pairs in 6♦.
#15
Posted 2011-August-31, 21:14
VM1973, on 2011-August-31, 18:06, said:
Huh? I didn't say this. Pairs in 6D are irrelevant.
#16
Posted 2011-August-31, 21:33
The Q♥ is definitely the play as the lead could be from anything in those. Always the play though as you have 11 (or 12) regardless and as pointed out, you may be one of many facing the same lead.
What is baby oil made of?
#17
Posted 2011-August-31, 23:39
JLOGIC, on 2011-August-31, 17:28, said:
This was a very significant part of my argument for playing the Ace. If you had read my post I was not relying solely on the lead being a singleton. Apology accepted.
For those who think that Q is right and Ace is "just awful", perhaps you can quantify your argument by breaking it down into chunks as follows:
(1) Please split your estimate of West's likely Heart holding into the following:
(i) Lead away from Heart King
(ii) Singleton
(iii) 5 card suit excluding King (ie King dropping singleton offside)
(iv) Other
These should add up to a total probability of 1.
(2) Please specify your estimate of RHO holding the Club Ace, In my earlier post I figured that this was more than 50% by reason of Opening leader not choosing a Spade lead. No-one has yet commented on this. If you think as I do that it is most likely to be a lead from shortage (including doubleton, not just singleton), then I rated the chances of RHO having Club Ace to be considerably greater than 50%, because with an entry to his Spade suit he would be more likely to lead a Spade. Feel free to give separate probabilities based on the various possible Heart holdings.
(3) *IF* RHO has both Club Ace and Heart King, please estimate the odds of East cashing Heart King (rather than Spade switch) when in with Club Ace, if you have played Heart Ace at trick 1. Personally I rated this earlier as being very low.
(4) *IF* RHO has Club Ace but NOT Heart King, please estimate the odds of East leading Heart to partner's King (rather than Spade switch) when in with Club Ace, if you have played Heart Ace at trick 1. (Personally I rate this a bit more than 3, but not by much).
(5) I think that the only other situation worth considering is LHO having both key honours and whether he would immediately cash the established Heart king if you eschew the finesse. Given that he has made such an inspired lead I am happy to concede that this would be a certainty.
I think that with those separate odds estimates I can construct a likelihood of 12 tricks by rising with the Ace. I suppose that to complete the analysis (ie the NECESSITY of 12 tricks and whether the distinction between 10 and 11 would be broadly irrelevant to the MP score) we would need to estimate the frequency of the room finding the same lead from the various holdings (including the frequency of getting the 3N declared by partner, so that the Hearts are protected at trick 1). One of the major differences between us is that my detractors think that a "brilliant" lead of a heart away from the king would be replicated by a significant proportion of the room. I did not accept that when it was proposed and I see no reason to accept it now.
Psyche (pron. sahy-kee): The human soul, spirit or mind (derived, personification thereof, beloved of Eros, Greek myth).
Masterminding (pron. mstr-mnding) tr. v. - Any bid made by bridge player with which partner disagrees.
"Gentlemen, when the barrage lifts." 9th battalion, King's own Yorkshire light infantry,
2000 years earlier: "morituri te salutant"
"I will be with you, whatever". Blair to Bush, precursor to invasion of Iraq
#18
Posted 2011-September-01, 00:06
1eyedjack, on 2011-August-31, 23:39, said:
Lol. Srs question, U MAD? I don't know why you would want or expect an apology for me being wrong about a bridge argument that you were right about, isn't that the point of the forum? I dunno if you were just being sarcastic or what. Sorry I didn't see your point about a defensive error! (ok no, im not!).
#19
Posted 2011-September-01, 00:12
Quote
(i) Lead away from Heart King
(ii) Singleton
(iii) 5 card suit excluding King (ie King dropping singleton offside)
(iv) Other
These should add up to a total probability of 1.
How do you still not get it. I (and I presume han) think the chance of ii is 0>x<.0000000000001
No one is leading stiff 9. And WTF at iii, 9 from J9xxx...ok I'll go with about the same as ii.
As far as RHO cashing the heart, obviously it depends on how good they are, but there is definitely a very good chance that they won't. I would estimate this as much higher than i (lead from KJ9 of hearts).
#20
Posted 2011-September-01, 00:20
-I think the best/only argument for playing the ace is that they might not cash the HK later, this has a much higher chance than anything else.
-I think playing the ace is right because of that
-Obv I overlooked this possibility in my earlier posts, and/or did not see you make that point. I argued strongly against there being any chance that LHO had the stiff 9 of hearts which obv I still stand by.
Apparently that warrants an apology, lol. I thought it was a good discussion, obv since I changed my mind, but if we are just trying to prove ourselves right and have others apologize for being wrong/being bad at reading...