[inquiry]

Got in a discussion on what the minimum values for 3NT is these days. Goren, of course, suggest 26 hcp. So I thought a short poll to see what the forum members consider "standard" count (plus other values if you care to want to insist on something) is for bidding to 3NT with a balanced hand opposite a balanced hand.

Background, those who play Kaplain and sheiwold know that tehy beleive balanced 12 opposite balance 12 is enough for game. So that is 24. So if you want to add some stipulations, like if the hcp are or are not evenly divided, feel free to add comments to this thread. For instance, if one hand had 20, would 6 be enough for opposite? would 5 be? Things like that. IF you upgrade combinations of honors, or multiple 10's or "good intermediates" (lets say 9's), use the multiple "10;'s" in the poll.

[mikeh]

Doesn't it depend on vulnerability and scoring method?

I think at mps, against strong opps, the breakeven point would be almost the playing strength of a full point more than at imps, when red. At imps, red, I like 24 with a 5 card suit or a couple of 10's. NV, I play it essentially the same as at mps. So any 25, for sure at mps or imps nv... and great 24s.

[awm]

Well, I make a lot of upgrades and downgrades for various reasons.

Assuming "nothing special" about the hands my guess is that 3NT will make about half the time on 25 hcp, a bit less (but not horrible) on 24 hcp. This means at IMPs I always want to be in 3NT with 25 hcp, whereas 24 hcp without any special features is fine either way. At MPs I prefer to avoid 24 hcp 3NT (unless really exceptional hands) and don't mind missing a 25 hcp 3NT on very unexceptional hands.

So for example holding a balanced hand opposite 15-17 (and a partner for whom 15-17 doesn't mean "a really nice 13 to a mediocre 16") I will game force all ten-counts. At MPs I will pass most eight-counts (only inviting on the truly exceptional ones) and will invite most nine-counts (GF on exceptional ones). At IMPs I will game force most (but not all) nine-counts and will invite on most eight-counts.

[MrAce]

I am talking about imps. I am from Europe and MP is not even considered as serious bridge there I don't really pay much attention to our combined hcps, but spot cards.

When we bid a game, a good outcome depends on 4 things;

-What we have

-The Lead

-Defense

-Our opponent's shape

Unfortunately our combined hcp, is the LEAST important of four elements that decides the good outcome in a borderline game imo. Arriving to the game with least amount of info to opponents, increases the chance of making borderline games.(Avoiding the invitation bids as much as we can) It directly effects THE LEAD and DEFENSE. Having rich spots makes it extremely hard for defense to reach to 5 tricks.

So i chosed the minimum (24) hcp option with spots.(There was no option that says "24 hcp with rich spots and a fast bidder" I think combined 24 hcps with rich spots almost always have at least %40 chance when arrived fast to game.

One opens 1 NT, other one invites with 9 due to shyness, other one passes with 15 and accepts if he had an extra J. This is not even scientific as some top Italian players stated in the past.

[gwnn]

Just look at your hand?

but sure, all other things being equal, 25 should be 3NT and when I see 24 with at least one redeeming feature (such as the realistic possibility of having 25, or honour structure or a 5 card suit) I also want to be there

[nige1]

inquiry, on 2010-December-07, 22:48, said:

Got in a discussion on what the minimum values for 3NT is these days. Goren, of course, suggest 26 hcp. So I thought a short poll to see what the forum members consider "standard" count (plus other values if you care to want to insist on something) is for bidding to 3NT with a balanced hand opposite a balanced hand.
Background, those who play Kaplain and sheiwold know that tehy beleive balanced 12 opposite balance 12 is enough for game. So that is 24. So if you want to add some stipulations, like if the hcp are or are not evenly divided, feel free to add comments to this thread. For instance, if one hand had 20, would 6 be enough for opposite? would 5 be? Things like that. IF you upgrade combinations of honors, or multiple 10's or "good intermediates" (lets say 9's), use the multiple "10;'s" in the poll.

IMO It depends on scoring method, vulnerability, and how evenly the strength is split. At the extremes
Vulnerable at at imps, 12 opposite 12, is ample.
At match-pointed pairs, 25 opposite 1 is doubtful.

In practice, due to the vagaries of notrump ranges, you often declare 3N on 23. For example, opposite a 15-17 1N opener what do you reply with
♠ xx ♥ xx ♦ xxxx ♣ AKJxx

AFIR, there is an article about this on Richard Pavlicek's excellent site.

[gwnn]

i call the director (sorry!)

[Free]

The question is constructed very poorly. There's not a single situation based on HCP, tens and a possible 5 card suit that I'd always want to be in 3NT. Sometimes I'd want to be in 4M or 5m. Plus the vulnerability and scoring can be very important (imps V is not the same as MP V)

You can't just say with such and such hand I'd always want to be in 3NT. For example I prefer to play 3NT with 12 vs 12 rather than 23 vs 1. Still, in both cases we have 24HCP. Same goes for tens, intermediates, quacks,... What's the point in having a 5 card suit and 24HCP if you can never reach the 5 card suit (24 vs 0 with a 5 card)?

[lexlogan]

If I know we have 25 hcp, two aces, and either a ten or a five card suit, I want to be in 3NT at any form of scoring. This does not mean, however, that I want to risk 2NT when that's the best we might have. So I wasn't quite sure how to answer the poll.

[mikl_plkcc]

This is the question I always think about.

A deck has 40 HCPs, so it is approximately 3 HCP per trick, so 27 HCPs make 9 tricks, and 26 HCPs have a large likelihood to make 9 tricks (here, we assume that all 4 hands are 4333 and all honours are distributed evenly among the suits and among both hands).

Why is 25 HCPs the commonly-accepted values to bid 3NT?

[mw64ahw]

There may be some stats. on Pavilecks website, but I seem to remember that 25 was ~53% and 24 ~48% likelihood of making. I think this is also in line with my own sims.

[bluenikki]

inquiry, on 2010-December-07, 22:48, said:

Background, those who play Kaplain and sheiwold know that tehy beleive balanced 12 opposite balance 12 is enough for game. So that is 24.

12 facing 12 yes. 20 facing 4 no. 16 facing 8 no. 15 facing 9: most seem to say yes, but too often the 9 won't have enough entries.

[bluenikki]

mikl_plkcc, on 2025-February-25, 09:49, said:

This is the question I always think about.

A deck has 40 HCPs, so it is approximately 3 HCP per trick, so 27 HCPs make 9 tricks, and 26 HCPs have a large likelihood to make 9 tricks (here, we assume that all 4 hands are 4333 and all honours are distributed evenly among the suits and among both hands).

Why is 25 HCPs the commonly-accepted values to bid 3NT?

Because 4333 is rare.