[shevek]

Scoring: IMP

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We have this old Acol auction to 7♠/W
---   1♥
2♠   3♠
3N   4♣
4♦   4N
5♠   5N
6♣   6♦
6♥   7♠

Yes, West is a point or a spade short for 2♠ in this style. Anyway,

North thinks for a full minute and leads ♠8.
You play dummy's two trumps, cross to ♥K and lead ♠K, pitching ♣10.
North had ♠T984, South pitches a discouraging diamond on the third trump.
It's 11 IMPs in or out so take your time.

[Apollo81]

Wouldn't it be nice if we could blithely unblock the ♦KQ, cash the ♥A and ruff a heart, draw the last trump (pitching a low diamond), and then cash the ♦A. At the very least we would have a great count on the hand, and at best someone with both round-suit Queens would have been squeezed already.

Given that we will just go down on the above line if North started with either a singleton diamond or a doubleton heart, my preference is to first draw North's last trump pitching the ♦7, play two more rounds of hearts ruffing with my last trump and then cash the ♦KQ. I will have a partial count on the hand at this point, and I still have a positional squeeze available against North if he held both Queens. However I still have the option to finesse against South if something weird has happened (such as South showing out on the 2nd round of diamonds).

[Hanoi5]

I think I'll get to this position:


♠---
♥---
♦A
♣K95

♠---
♥T
♦---
♣AJ4

I suppose the ♥QJ have not appeared, but what has happened so far? (I took out the missing trump throwing away a diamond, crossed to ♦KQ, ♥A and ♥x ruffed).

[shevek]

Hanoi5, on Jun 22 2010, 09:25 AM, said:

I think I'll get to this position:


♠---
♥---
♦A
♣K95

♠---
♥T
♦---
♣AJ4

I suppose the ♥QJ have not appeared, but what has happened so far? (I took out the missing trump throwing away a diamond, crossed to ♦KQ, ♥A and ♥x ruffed).

If you do that they both follow all the way.
North (the leader, East in your layout) plays ♦J on the second round.
South plays ♥J on third round

[Apollo81]

it cant hurt to cash the ♦A and see one more pitch out of North - what is it

[Hanoi5]

North has:

Txxx
(Q)xxx
Jx(?)
???

xx
(Q)Jxx
xxx(x)
???

Definitely ♦A. If North has a diamond, ♣J from the table and unless the ♥T is a trick ♣A and finesse the 9. If North had only 2 diamonds, toss the ♥T and finesse the ♣J.

[shevek]

Hanoi5, on Jun 22 2010, 11:00 AM, said:

North has:

Txxx
(Q)xxx
Jx(?)
???

xx
(Q)Jxx
xxx(x)
???

Definitely ♦A. If North has a diamond, ♣J from the table and unless the ♥T is a trick ♣A and finesse the 9. If North had only 2 diamonds, toss the ♥T and finesse the ♣J.

Yes, North pitches a club on ♦A while South plays his last, so they were 2-5.
So North has 3 or 4 clubs therefore play him for queen.

On the other hand, ♥Q is more llikely with North by restricted choice, so 3-3 clubs becomes more likely.

Another factor is the time North took to find the opening lead.
With
♠T984  ♥xxx  ♦Jx  ♣Qxxx

You may think a trump would have come out faster. You may even infer that North was thinking of a club from 4 small, perhaps to break up a squeeze.

[Apollo81]

I don't think the hesitation on lead is a factor. If anything it means he may hold a diamond singleton (since we know South has 5+ from the pitch)

[lmilne]

Apollo81, on Jun 22 2010, 10:17 PM, said:

I don't think the hesitation on lead is a factor. If anything it means he may hold a diamond singleton (since we know South has 5+ from the pitch)

why would anyone think about leading a singleton against grand, especially when they have solid trumps?

n.b. it's pretty hard to work out what he was thinking of anyway, but still...

[whereagles]

the hesitation could also have been due to North wondering if she could afford to lead from his trump holding...

anyway, I'd ruff a heart, cash diamonds and look at their faces. If nothing happens, I'll just finesse against the longer clubs.

[shevek]

lmilne, on Jun 22 2010, 11:32 PM, said:

Apollo81, on Jun 22 2010, 10:17 PM, said:

I don't think the hesitation on lead is a factor.  If anything it means he may hold a diamond singleton (since we know South has 5+ from the pitch)

why would anyone think about leading a singleton against grand, especially when they have solid trumps?

n.b. it's pretty hard to work out what he was thinking of anyway, but still...

North might have been concerned about this layout

Scoring: IMP

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He can place EW with six trump tricks (supposedly) & 3 AKs. Now it takes a club lead to stop the Type B2 double.
This specific layout is less likely than something like the actual but it seemed to me that's probably what he was thinking about, especially when he turned up with a 100% safe trump lead and ♦Jx.

Clearly if he had the same with ♣Qxx, the trump lead would have come much faster.