[eyhung]

Scoring: IMP

---

I saw this neat hand in a home team game. You reach 5D from the South chair with no enemy bidding after N/S start with a 2/1 game-forcing auction. The lead is the Club Ten (standard honor leads). Plan the play.

[pooltuna]

eyhung, on Jun 8 2010, 06:54 PM, said:

Scoring: IMP

---

I saw this neat hand in a home team game. You reach 5D from the South chair with no enemy bidding after N/S start with a 2/1 game-forcing auction. The lead is the Club Ten (standard honor leads). Plan the play.

win the ♣, A♦, ruff a ♣, draw trumps, A♥, finally low ♥ to the T looks to provide the maximum chance to make.

[eyhung]

That's the best play of the suit in isolation. It's not the best play on the actual hand because you can't lead towards the HQ later, so you lose to all KJ9x's (6 cases) as well as Jx (3 cases) in RHO. You also lose to KJ9xx in RHO (3 5-1 cases).

[gnasher]

eyhung, on Jun 9 2010, 05:14 PM, said:

That's the best play of the suit in isolation. It's not the best play on the actual hand because you can't lead towards the HQ later, so you lose to all KJ9x's (6 cases) as well as Jx (3 cases) in RHO. You also lose to KJ9xx in RHO (3 5-1 cases).

Ace and low to the ten doesn't lost to KJ9x on the left, so Pooltuna's line loses to only six 4-2 breaks and three 5-1s.

What about low to the queen, then low to the eight later? That loses only to LHO's K, K9, KJ9x and KJ9xx, which is four 4-2s and two 5-1s.

Low to the eight and then low to the queen is equally good from the point of view of making the contract, but gives up some overtrick chances.

[cherdanno]

gnasher, on Jun 9 2010, 11:29 AM, said:

What about low to the queen, then low to the eight later? That loses only to LHO's K, K9, KJ9x and KJ9xx, which is four 4-2s and two 5-1s.

It also loses to most cases where LHO has KJxx, as you can only draw one trump before leading a second time from dummy.

Low to the queen now, and low to the ten later? That was my intuitive answer but it loses to LHO's K, Kx, K9xx or KJ9xx.

[Flame]

Might be idiotic but my instinct tells me to take the A club and play low to the 8 at trick 2.

[gnasher]

cherdanno, on Jun 9 2010, 05:37 PM, said:

gnasher, on Jun 9 2010, 11:29 AM, said:

What about low to the queen, then low to the eight later?  That loses only to LHO's K, K9, KJ9x and KJ9xx, which is four 4-2s and two 5-1s.

It also loses to most cases where LHO has KJxx, as you can only draw one trump before leading a second time from dummy.

On a good day, I'll notice that RHO has played the 9 on the second round of the suit, so I'll play the ace.

[eyhung]

gnasher, on Jun 9 2010, 10:13 AM, said:

cherdanno, on Jun 9 2010, 05:37 PM, said:

gnasher, on Jun 9 2010, 11:29 AM, said:

What about low to the queen, then low to the eight later?  That loses only to LHO's K, K9, KJ9x and KJ9xx, which is four 4-2s and two 5-1s.

It also loses to most cases where LHO has KJxx, as you can only draw one trump before leading a second time from dummy.

On a good day, I'll notice that RHO has played the 9 on the second round of the suit, so I'll play the ace.

Yes, this is the pretty part of the problem. The threat of a diamond ruff argues against a line that may let you lose the second round of hearts, but the ruff with 4-2 is not an issue in most cases because you can play the ace when you see RHO follows with a non-x, and when RHO can ruff, you were about to go down anyway.

[eyhung]

gnasher, on Jun 9 2010, 09:29 AM, said:

eyhung, on Jun 9 2010, 05:14 PM, said:

That's the best play of the suit in isolation.  It's not the best play on the actual hand because you can't lead towards the HQ later, so you lose to all KJ9x's (6 cases) as well as Jx (3 cases) in RHO.  You also lose to KJ9xx in RHO (3 5-1 cases).

Ace and low to the ten doesn't lost to KJ9x on the left, so Pooltuna's line loses to only six 4-2 breaks and three 5-1s.

What about low to the queen, then low to the eight later? That loses only to LHO's K, K9, KJ9x and KJ9xx, which is four 4-2s and two 5-1s.

Low to the eight and then low to the queen is equally good from the point of view of making the contract, but gives up some overtrick chances.

You're right -- I misanalyzed pooltuna's line for KJ9x offside. But doesn't your low to the queen, low to eight lose to four 5-1s (stiff K 1 case, KJ9xx 3 cases), not two? It's still a better line, just wanted to clarify your commentary.

Low to the eight, low towards the queen (playing the ace if a non-x appears) feels slightly superior to me from a contract-making perspective. In practice LHO is less likely to have a small heart stiff because he is more likely to lead it in preference to a club, but he might have stiff K (or stiff J). Once the eight forces K or J you can win the DA, cross in a black suit, and draw trump to guarantee the contract, so you only pay off to K9 doubleton (1 case), KJ9x in LHO (3 cases), or KJ9xx in LHO (3 5-1 cases).

[helene_t]

Flame, on Jun 9 2010, 05:48 PM, said:

Might be idiotic but my instinct tells me to take the A club and play low to the 8 at trick 2.

That was my thought also.

If ♦8 loses to ♦ 9 then I play another small diamond next time, to the queen if E plays low but if E plays ♦J I take it with the ace and draw trumps.

[gnasher]

eyhung, on Jun 9 2010, 06:48 PM, said:

But doesn't your low to the queen, low to eight lose to four 5-1s (stiff K 1 case, KJ9xx 3 cases), not two? It's still a better line, just wanted to clarify your commentary.

Low to the eight, low towards the queen (playing the ace if a non-x appears) feels slightly superior to me from a contract-making perspective. In practice LHO is less likely to have a small heart stiff because he is more likely to lead it in preference to a club, but he might have stiff K (or stiff J).

Yes, I agree with both of those points.