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Guess

Poll: Guess (37 member(s) have cast votes)

Guess

  1. Pass (32 votes [86.49%])

    Percentage of vote: 86.49%

  2. Double (3 votes [8.11%])

    Percentage of vote: 8.11%

  3. 3NT (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  4. Four diamonds (natural in your methods) (2 votes [5.41%])

    Percentage of vote: 5.41%

  5. Four hearts (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  6. Would bid four diamonds if that were not forcing and showed diamonds and hearts, but since it does not, will... (specify) (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  7. Other (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

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#1 User is offline   dburn 

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Posted 2010-May-31, 20:16

Scoring: IMP

You are East on board four of a 7-board Swiss Teams match. Last round. Going in, you lead by 5 VPs (20-0 scale) from the second-placed team and are playing the third-placed team, who need to blitz you to catch you.

On board one, you have bid and made 6 with:

Scoring: IMP


On board two, you have bid and made 4 with:

Scoring: IMP

when South's heart lead from 964 proved fatal. You would have made it on a trump lead also, but not on a minor-suit lead; the opening leader held 2 964 K9653 K985 and your uncontested auction was simply 2 (good weak two bid) - 4.

Board three appears flat.

Now, South opens 3 which is followed by two in-tempo passes. And you?
When Senators have had their sport
And sealed the Law by vote,
It little matters what they thought -
We hang for what they wrote.
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#2 User is offline   jjbrr 

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Posted 2010-May-31, 20:19

pass
OK
bed
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#3 User is offline   MarkDean 

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Posted 2010-May-31, 20:23

I would also pass.
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#4 User is offline   655321 

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Posted 2010-May-31, 20:28

dburn, on May 31 2010, 09:16 PM, said:

Dealer: South
Vul: N/S
Scoring: IMP
972
K1098
AQ975
A
 


[A lot of irrelevant verbiage snipped]

Now, South opens 3 which is followed by two in-tempo passes. And you?


The spade length makes this an easy pass I think.

(Edit) If I were forced to make a non-pass call, 3NT looks best, partner is very likely to have a spade stopper and on a good day we might be able to make 9 tricks.

This post has been edited by 655321: 2010-May-31, 21:00

That's impossible. No one can give more than one hundred percent. By definition that is the most anyone can give.
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#5 User is offline   gwnn 

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Posted 2010-May-31, 20:43

in any other position I would pass it out but NOW I think this is a pass.
... and I can prove it with my usual, flawless logic.
      George Carlin
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#6 User is offline   Phil 

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Posted 2010-May-31, 21:54

Speaking from the perspective of the 3rd place team....

We bid the obvious, but tricky 6 on board 1 (we had an interesting discussion on whether or not 7 could be made) which felt like a pretty good spot against a likely 3N at the other table and a possible +11.

We made exactly 3 on Board 2 when the auction of 1 - pass - 2 - x; 3 - AP. We felt slightly lucky with +170 with the KQ on, and the 9xx falling, though felt relieved that game could go down on the right lead, so this felt like a -6/+1/+6 position. Board 3 was a push.

As I look at my cards on the 4th board, I feel like I've had a decent set so far, and that the other team would be playing down the middle to protect their 5 VP cushion over the other team, and its very possible that DBurn might be trying to protect against a swing and will take a call here which seems dubious.

So I pass.
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#7 User is offline   hanp 

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Posted 2010-June-01, 02:44

Would have doubled if I had made 4S on a trump lead. Now I pass.
and the result can be plotted on a graph.
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#8 User is offline   mich-b 

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Posted 2010-June-01, 03:47

Pass, because I believe this to be the right call .
And because I think it is almost always too difficult to figure out correctly what might have happened on previous boards , what will happen in the next boards , and what is happening in the matches of other teams..
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#9 User is offline   gnasher 

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Posted 2010-June-01, 03:56

I don't really understand what you're supposed to do differently when defending a lead, but on the rare occasions when I face this problem I just play my normal game except that I try not to go for any large penalties. That seems to be two good reasons for passing.
... that would still not be conclusive proof, before someone wants to explain that to me as well as if I was a 5 year-old. - gwnn
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#10 User is offline   whereagles 

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Posted 2010-June-01, 07:15

Joining the easy pass, on grounds that pard is likely to be weakish due to short spades + no action.
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#11 User is offline   pooltuna 

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Posted 2010-June-01, 07:22

whereagles, on Jun 1 2010, 08:15 AM, said:

Joining the easy pass, on grounds that pard is likely to be weakish due to short spades + no action.

Color me bawk bawk bawk. The colors are wrong to take any action IMO.
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#12 User is offline   ArtK78 

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Posted 2010-June-01, 10:05

If I were the 3rd place team, needing a blitz to have any chance of winning, I would not be passing out this hand. Of course, one doesn't know if the 3 bid is normal, since the preempter could be pressing after three results which, at best, are pushes, but are likely to be -10 to -17 in the aggregate.

So, I do what I think is right and I pass. But it would not surprise me to find that balancing with a double is the winning action.
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#13 User is online   mikeh 

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Posted 2010-June-01, 10:05

Pass.

I assume that we didn't get to first place by playing for swings: we simply tried to play our best. If so, it seems to have been working, so why would one go away from one's comfort level, trying to read the tea-leaves?

I'd never balance playing sound bridge, so why do it now? Sure, the other table might choose to swing...but the reason it's called swinging is that it usually loses.

Besides, I stopped trying to estimate how the other table was doing many, many years ago: somehow their results never accord with my expectations.
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#14 User is offline   dburn 

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Posted 2010-June-02, 02:50

Well, I passed. Partner had

64 AJ765 K4 10862

The pre-emptor's partner had the singleton A and three diamonds, so three spades went down two and (with the right view in trumps) my side could make six hearts.

The first three boards were all flat - our counterparts at the other table also bid six diamonds; our team-mate also led a heart against four spades (and his partner did not duck it, which would have forced declarer to guess diamonds); the flat-looking board lived up to its appearance.

On the fifth deal I found a ridiculous defence to a vulnerable game that beat it only one instead of three (it wasn't an awful contract, but the breaks were bad). The last two boards were as flat as the first three, so we... won the match comfortably, because our other team-mate received an even more ridiculous defence to the game that allowed it to make.

There is a moral in all of this, if only I could find it.
When Senators have had their sport
And sealed the Law by vote,
It little matters what they thought -
We hang for what they wrote.
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#15 User is offline   whereagles 

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Posted 2010-June-02, 03:07

the moral is well-known: "preempts work"
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#16 User is offline   cherdanno 

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Posted 2010-June-02, 03:21

dburn, on Jun 2 2010, 03:50 AM, said:

There is a moral in all of this, if only I could find it.

Don't ridiculously misdefend vulnerable games when you need a swing? (Or when you don't want a swing.)

Anyway, I assume board 4 was a push also?
"Are you saying that LTC merits a more respectful dismissal?"
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#17 User is offline   dburn 

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Posted 2010-June-02, 03:46

cherdanno, on Jun 2 2010, 04:21 AM, said:

Anyway, I assume board 4 was a push also?

No. The opening bid at the other table was four spades, passed out and down three.
When Senators have had their sport
And sealed the Law by vote,
It little matters what they thought -
We hang for what they wrote.
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#18 User is offline   pooltuna 

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Posted 2010-June-02, 07:18

whereagles, on Jun 2 2010, 04:07 AM, said:

the moral is well-known: "preempts work"

yep and just because you can make 6 doesn't mean you have the system to bid it
"Tell me of your home world, Usul"
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#19 User is offline   whereagles 

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Posted 2010-June-02, 15:41

it's totally ridiculous to bid 6 here.... come on, no bidding system discovers a block in the OPPONENTS suit :)
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#20 User is offline   dburn 

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Posted 2010-June-03, 16:01

whereagles, on Jun 2 2010, 04:41 PM, said:

it's totally ridiculous to bid 6 here.... come on, no bidding system discovers a block in the OPPONENTS suit :)

Well, actually...
When Senators have had their sport
And sealed the Law by vote,
It little matters what they thought -
We hang for what they wrote.
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