[helene_t]

http://www.politico....1008/14714.html

Another one of the same kind:

The conservative case for Obama

With Democrats leading with huge margins in congressional-election polls, and some prominent republicans endorsing Obama, Why isn't Obama leading by much more than the 3-6% indicated by recent polls?

[Al_U_Card]

He is (part)black?

[cherdano]

helene_t, on Oct 19 2008, 03:14 PM, said:

http://www.politico....1008/14714.html

Another one of the same kind:

The conservative case for Obbama

With Democrats leading with huge margins in congressional-election polls, and some prominent republicans endorsing Obama, Why isn't Obama leading by much more than the 3-6% indicated by recent polls?

It is a bit higher than what you say, 6-7%.
This is a big lead by the standards of American presidential elections. A big majority of voters picks the same party for every presidential election.

[gwnn]

Don't voters die every now and again? Or that's irrelevant since party preference goes from father to son? In that case maybe reproductive rates could be a factor?

[cherdano]

There is something else. Many of the endorsements you have probably heard about come from intellectuals. Intellectuals in the US have a lot less influence on public opinion than in Europe (well, at least in the countries that I know more or less to make this judgment).

[matmat]

cherdano, on Oct 19 2008, 06:00 PM, said:

There is something else. Many of the endorsements you have probably heard about come from intellectuals. Intellectuals in the US have a lot less influence on public opinion than in Europe (well, at least in the countries that I know more or less to make this judgment).

wonder why that is.

[jdonn]

helene_t, on Oct 19 2008, 04:14 PM, said:

http://www.politico....1008/14714.html

Another one of the same kind:

The conservative case for Obbama

With Democrats leading with huge margins in congressional-election polls, and some prominent republicans endorsing Obama, Why isn't Obama leading by much more than the 3-6% indicated by recent polls?

Racism!?!?!

[Lobowolf]

helene_t, on Oct 19 2008, 04:14 PM, said:

http://www.politico....1008/14714.html

Another one of the same kind:

The conservative case for Obbama

With Democrats leading with huge margins in congressional-election polls, and some prominent republicans endorsing Obama, Why isn't Obama leading by much more than the 3-6% indicated by recent polls?

I'm not sure how much weight any particular endorsement has, particularly this late in the game. Additionally, on the flip side, Joe Lieberman, who was on the Democratic ticket 2 years ago, has endorsed McCain, for whatever that's worth.

As Cherdano pointed out, also, the actual difference in the polls is probably bigger than it seems in terms of "swayable" voters. As a very rough oversimplification, 1/3 vote Republican, 1/3 vote Democrat, and 1/3 are up in the air, and actually decide the election. If Obama has, say, a 5-point edge, that's coming from the middle third -- call it 19%-14%. If you look just within that group, that's about 35% more for Obama than McCain.

Congress isn't really good indicator, either. Congressmembers and presidents do different things, and, additionally, to some extent, people like to see Congress and the President check and balance each other. Reagan and Bush had Democratic congresses; 2 years after Clinton was elected, Republicans took Congress over. During the Bush (II) presidency, the Democrats got it back. So it's not like a guaranteed lock-step vote for both. Similarly, where I live (California), voters almost always vote Democrat for president, and Republican for governor. (Not relevant to the "checks and balances" argument, but relevant to the "they do different things, so don't expect straight-line party affiliation).

[kenberg]

From your second reference:

"I really have been going back and forth between somebody I have the highest respect and regard for, John McCain, and somebody I was getting to know, Barack Obama. And it was only in the last couple of months that I settled on this."

I think you can see a bit of an explanation in this quote. Many people, including myself, had high hopes for the McCain candidacy. I did not, as Powell did, send money to McCain, but I considered it. To say that his campaign has been a disappointment is an extreme understatement. Powell, now that he has endorsed Obama, naturally speaks highly of him. Myself, I am less of an enthusiast but, all in all, I will be voting for Obama. I hope for the best, but I am uneasy. It's a tough job, I wish the best of luck to whoever takes it on. I always have.

Some find these matters really clear cut. I rarely do. Probably there are some others out there who are having some trouble. And Arend is partly right, I don't follow the advice of intellectuals. But only partly, because I don't follow anyone else's advice either.

[Lobowolf]

I don't think racism is going to hurt Obama, on balance. I don't think that many of the voters who are going to fail to vote for Obama because he's black would have voted for a very liberal new senator who was white, either. Additionally, to the extent that it does happen, Obama will pick up some votes because he's black, also.

Hard to prove the extent to which racism hurts or helps him, on balance, but I'd certainly take an even money bet that he gets more votes than Kerry.

[cherdano]

kenberg, on Oct 19 2008, 05:58 PM, said:

From your second reference:

"I really have been going back and forth between somebody I have the highest respect and regard for, John McCain, and somebody I was getting to know, Barack Obama. And it was only in the last couple of months that I settled on this."

I think you can see a bit of an explanation in this quote. Many people, including myself, had high hopes for the McCain candidacy. I did not, as Powell did, send money to McCain, but I considered it. To say that his campaign has been a disappointment is an extreme understatement. Powell, now that he has endorsed Obama, naturally speaks highly of him. Myself, I am less of an enthusiast but, all in all, I will be voting for Obama. I hope for the best, but I am uneasy. It's a tough job, I wish the best of luck to whoever takes it on. I always have.

Some find these matters really clear cut. I rarely do. Probably there are some others out there who are having some trouble. And Arend is partly right, I don't follow the advice of intellectuals. But only partly, because I don't follow anyone else's advice either.

For me it was always clear-cut to support the Obama (or Hillary, or Edwards, if they had made it to the ticker for that matter). But for a while I was ok with McCain becoming president. This has changed dramatically over the course of the campaign.

By now I am thinking the McCain is living in the bubble of his own spin. He really seemed angry at the "biggest negative campaign in history", that ACORN was about to cause biggest election fraud ever, that his campaign is only raising questions about Obama's truthfulness with regards to Ayers, etc. etc.

This I find pretty worrisome. A campaign generates a lot of spin, but so does an administration.

[jikl]

An interesting article appeared in the Melbourne (Australia) newspaper that discusses race and religion biases:

Race and religion argument

Then another one by a former Prime Minister of Australia:

Another view

Just sharing something from another part of the world, not making an opinion here (although I do know who I would vote for).

Sean

[hrothgar]

helene_t, on Oct 20 2008, 12:14 AM, said:

With Democrats leading with huge margins in congressional-election polls, and some prominent republicans endorsing Obama, Why isn't Obama leading by much more than the 3-6% indicated by recent polls?

For what its worth, the following quote describes the independent variables in 538.com's regression model. I took this directly from the site's FAQ

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/03/fre...st-revised.html

Quote

Political

1. Kerry. John Kerry's vote share in 2004. Note that an adjustment is made in Massachusetts and Texas, the home states of Kerry and George W. Bush respectively, based on Al Gore's results in Massachusetts in 2000, and Bob Dole's results in Texas in 1996.
2. Fundraising Share. The total share of funds raised in that state by each candidate (expressed specifically as the percentage of all funds raised that were raised by the Democratic candidate).

3. Clinton. The percentage of the two-way (Obama + Clinton) Democratic primary vote received by Hillary Clinton in that state. An adjustment is made to caucus states to account for their higher proclivity to vote for Barack Obama. In Michigan, the variable is based on the results of exit polling, which indicated who voters would have selected if all candidates were on the ballot.
4. Liberal-Conservative (Likert) Score. Per 2004 exit polls, a state’s liberal-conservative orientation, wherein each liberal voter is given a score of 10, each moderate a score of 5, and each conservative a score of 0. The most liberal state, Massachusetts, has a Likert score of 5.65. The most conservative, Utah, has a score of 3.30.


Religious Identity

5. Evangelical. The proportion of white evangelical protestants in each state.
6. Catholic. The proportion of Catholics in each state.
7. Mormon. The proportion of LDS voters in each state.

Ethnic and Racial Identity

8. African-American. The proportion of African-Americans in each state.
9. Hispanic. The number of Latino voters in each state as a proportion of overall voter turnout in 2004, as estimated by the Census Bureau. The reason I use data based on turnout rather than data based on the underlying population of Latinos is because Latino registration and turnout varies significantly from state to state. It is much higher in New Mexico, for instance, which has many Hispanics who have been in the country for generations, than it is in Nevada, where many Hispanics are new migrants and are not yet registered.
10. "American". The proportion of residents who report their ancestry as "American" in each state, which tends to be highest in the Appalachians. See discussion here.

Economic

11. PCI. Per capita income in each state.
12. Manufacturing. The proportion of jobs in each state that are in the manufacturing sector.

Demographic

13. Senior. The proportion of the white population aged 65 or older in each state. Because life expectancy varies significantly among different ethnic groups, this version has more explanatory significance than when looking at the entire (white and non-white) population.
14. Twenty. The proportion of residents aged 18-29 in each state, as a fraction of the overall adult population..
15. Education. Average number of years of schooling completed for adults aged 25 and older in each state.
16. Suburban. The proportion of voters in each state that live in suburban environments, per 2004 exit polls.

[Al_U_Card]

Fear, discouragement and debt. The new mantra of the neocons in the "new" American century.

Fear..... they are saying such negative things, what if they are true?
Discouragement.....it makes no difference so why vote/protest/get involved?
Debt.....no time for anything but work to pay what I owe.

[JoAnneM]

Hopefully Colin Powell will help swing the military vote, which for some strange reason usually polls Republican. My husband is a retired Colonel and a very strong Democrat, but no one ever asks him.

[akhare]

helene_t, on Oct 19 2008, 04:14 PM, said:

With Democrats leading with huge margins in congressional-election polls, and some prominent republicans endorsing Obama, Why isn't Obama leading by much more than the 3-6% indicated by recent polls?

It mystifies me too -- as a (naturalized) immigrant, voting for the Democratic ticket is the logically obvious choice.

My guess is that some of the cultural issues that seem downright absurd to me must really matter to the faithful on the other side...

[mike777]

JoAnneM, on Oct 19 2008, 10:35 PM, said:

Hopefully Colin Powell will help swing the military vote, which for some strange reason usually polls Republican. My husband is a retired Colonel and a very strong Democrat, but no one ever asks him.

the vast col....the vast lt col.....give up voting on dem or rep..........they simply give up.

[hrothgar]

Nearly forgot:

If you're seriously interested in this stuff Andrew Gelman has a good book out titled "Red State Blue State Rich State Poor State"

My folks got it for me for my birthday. It was a really good read...

[y66]

I think racism will hurt Obama, but even racists understand that it really is about the economy.

Very happy to see Colin Powell coming out for Obama. Maybe now he can start to put those dark days as a Bush "team player" behind him. Hope so.

Christopher Buckley's endorsement on October 10th was a surprise. Thanks for posting that link last week Helene. I thought his Daily Beast piece was pretty lame though and that he missed a real opportunity to carry on his old man's alleged life's mission of "separating the Right from the kooks”. Ha! Yes, McCain's "inauthenticity" is troubling. But I don't understand why it's so troubling for Mr. Buckley. Maybe it's easier to criticize others for selling out, especially if they are (once) respected elders, than it is to take a good look at yourself in the mirror, especially for a guy as talented and perceptive as he is.

[y66]

re: the military vote:

Quote

Some of the most interesting dollars to follow since the start of this election cycle have been those given by donors in the military, who have preferred anti-war candidate Barack Obama over hawkish John McCain from the start. But a surge of funds to McCain, a Vietnam War prisoner, in the final months that he was able to accept private contributions, moved him into the lead. By the end of August, McCain had collected $461,350 from military donors, compared to Obama's $450,950.

The largest difference is in contributions from employees of the Department of Defense, who have given McCain $35,400 more than they have to Obama since the start of the election cycle ($127,200 compared to $91,800). Obama, however, has maintained his lead among employees of the uniformed service branches, bringing in $340,400, while McCain's total was $321,500. Obama is also still ahead in contributions from military donors with overseas addresses, including those who work for the DoD--$74,650 compared to $16,600.

Reported by the Center for Responsive Politics.