[fred]

 There were a lot of dramatic hands with a lot of IMPs at stake in the USBC, but one of my favorite hands from the tournament was "just a partial":

Scoring: IMP

---

1D  P   1H  P
1N  P   2C  P
2D  P   P    DBL
P   2S  3D  P
P   P

2C was a relay to 2D

Note South's 4th round PASS - I think many would bid 3D. Of course he (me) was always going to compete to 3D, but PASS has some advantages:

- You learn more about the opps' hands
- If your partner competes to 3D (as he did here) your opps are kept in the dark about the nature of your hand
- If you end up bidding 3D opps may expect you to have bid 3D before with a hand "like yours" (increasing the chances of a misguess by the defense)

Some interesting questions: if you PASS, are you more or less likely to buy it for 3D (which is obviously what you want)? How about "psyching" a RDBL in an attempt to scare the opponents?

In the real world of course you are overwhelmingly likely to buy it for 3D no matter which sequence you pick (due to the balancing philosophies that most pairs adopt - push them up and then sell out).

Anyways, the opening lead is the King of clubs.

RHO encourages and wins the small club continuation with the Ace.

The defense plays a 3rd round of clubs and you ruff in the dummy.

Your play a small trump off the dummy: 9, Queen, King.

LHO, a very strong player, thinks forever and returns a trump.

What now?

Fred Gitelman
Bridge Base Inc.
www.bridgebase.com

[FrancesHinden]

I assume LHO has 3 trumps otherwise we can claim for 9(+) tricks at this point.

It looks very much as if RHO has the king of hearts. He has the CA and (I think) probably the queen of spades (why no spade switch at trick 3, particular if he has 4 low hearts).

That makes RHO 4414 and LHO 4234 which is all consistent with the bidding.
The slight downside is that a spade switch when he won the DK would have beaten the contract, as indeed would a spade switch at trick 3.

Now all we have to do is make it...

I still need to pick up the hearts for one loser.
If I really believe all these inferences above, I need to win the diamond in the dummy and run the 9 of hearts, as RHO having K10xx is more likely that Kxxx

[kenrexford]

My gut tells me differently.

If LHO has two clubs and a diamond in pocket, with a heart on the way (King placed well), I think he attacks spades. Why mess around? So, the heart hook is working.

So, I'll win the diamond in hand and lead out the heart Queen, expecting a cover to the Ace. I'll then cash the heart Jack and then play the heart 9, riding it unless covered, even if RHO shows out, ditching a spade. I can then use the established heart for a second spade pitch.

I think the win on dummy is a presented losing option and a mirage.

[NickRW]

Others are more interested in the play, I'll have a shot at the bidding question:

fred, on Jun 8 2008, 03:53 PM, said:

Some interesting questions: if you PASS, are you more or less likely to buy it for 3D (which is obviously what you want)? How about "psyching" a RDBL in an attempt to scare the opponents?

Given that this is IMP and the opps are red, then I personally think that it is relatively unlikely that they will try to out compete your 3♦. So, under the given circumstances, then I am not sure your wheezes to try to win the contract will have much practical effect - you rate to win anyway.

Change the opps to white or the scoring to MPs, then I think it becomes more interesting. I would suggest that, if opps are going to read pass then 3♦ as weaker, they might be encouraged to think that they might actually make 3♠ - and, even if not, 1 off may be a good save - they're only wrong when neither contract makes or they're two off and you double. This may be the opposite of what you want. Rdbl, I guess, has the opposite effect. That is if they don't smell a rat.

Nick

[gnasher]

The decision to pass rather than bidding 3♦ may be the reason that RHO continued clubs rather than switching to spades. The forcing defence may have been because he thought his partner had four trumps.

[fred]

Jlall, on Jun 8 2008, 08:59 PM, said:

IMO it's 100 % that RHO has the KT of hearts. If LHO had even Tx of hearts he would know that his defense is too dangerous since declarer with Hx of hearts will be cold, and he would shift to a spade. He defended this way because he thought it was very likely partner had a double stop in hearts. Let's make him pay and run the H9.

LOL - I thought it was 100% that LHO had the King of hearts on the theory that it was hard for me to imagine that the defense had failed to take their 5 top tricks.

Fred Gitelman
Bridge Base Inc.
www.bridgebase.com

[FrancesHinden]

fred, on Jun 8 2008, 10:47 PM, said:

Jlall, on Jun 8 2008, 08:59 PM, said:

IMO it's 100 % that RHO has the KT of hearts. If LHO had even Tx of hearts he would know that his defense is too dangerous since declarer with Hx of hearts will be cold, and he would shift to a spade. He defended this way because he thought it was very likely partner had a double stop in hearts. Let's make him pay and run the H9.

LOL - I thought it was 100% that LHO had the King of hearts on the theory that it was hard for me to imagine that the defense had failed to take their 5 top tricks.

Fred Gitelman
Bridge Base Inc.
www.bridgebase.com

Well yes I had that problem too

But anyway I couldn't see how to make it if LHO has Kx of hearts.
Win the trump in hand, queen-king-ace of hearts, jack of hearts, 9 of hearts discarding a spade and LHO ruffs this and (finally) plays a spade.

edit: I don't understand the defence if RHO doesn't have the HK; why would he not switch to a spade at trick 3? Certainly if he has the Q he would have switched, I could easily have something like Kxx Kx AQ10xx xxx, and LHO's defence (K then low one rather than KQ) seems to indicate he wanted a card played through.

[fred]

Jlall, on Jun 8 2008, 10:18 PM, said:

You can go queen king ace of hearts, then lead the 9 of hearts off the board without cashing the J.

That's why I liked this hand.

Quote

Alternatively you can lead a heart to the 9.

This I didn't think of, but now I like this hand even more

Fred Gitelman
Bridge Base Inc.
www.bridgebase.com

[fred]

Jlall, on Jun 8 2008, 10:30 PM, said:

fred, on Jun 8 2008, 04:47 PM, said:

Jlall, on Jun 8 2008, 08:59 PM, said:

IMO it's 100 % that RHO has the KT of hearts. If LHO had even Tx of hearts he would know that his defense is too dangerous since declarer with Hx of hearts will be cold, and he would shift to a spade. He defended this way because he thought it was very likely partner had a double stop in hearts. Let's make him pay and run the H9.

LOL - I thought it was 100% that LHO had the King of hearts on the theory that it was hard for me to imagine that the defense had failed to take their 5 top tricks.

Fred Gitelman
Bridge Base Inc.
www.bridgebase.com

I don't know, it seems like the opponents would both have likely shifted to spades if RHO had Txxx of hearts and LHO had Kx since it looks so dangerous. It makes more sense to me that they both thought hearts were well stopped, and LHO didn't want to risk shifting from the SK into your hypothetical AQ when he didn't have to.

Also, it was probably RHO who made a mistake (if I was right about the heart suit anyways) in not shifting to spades, but you probably induced that as gnasher said by bidding in a way that made him think playing for the tap was right.

BTW can you rebid 1N with 4 spades? If not RHO probably knew you were 3253 I guess.

Yes I could have had 4 spades.

I also blame RHO. To me it feels like he should have played a spade at trick 3 pretty much regardless of what the rest of his hand looked like. By "should have" I mean:

1) It would normally be the technically correct play (I think)
2) It would normally seem like the natural play (I think) - tapping the dummy is taking a pretty big view (I think)
3) It would be good partnership bridge to switch to a spade at trick 3, regardless of what you hold in hearts (I think)

About 3...

RHO has no idea if tapping the dummy rates to be good for the defense. But LHO, who is looking at his own trump holding, likely has an opinion about this.

If it is right to tap the dummy he can play the Queen of clubs at trick 2 and tap the dummy himself with a 3rd club at trick 3. When LHO fails to defend this way, RHO should shift to spades.

Fred Gitelman
Bridge Base Inc.
www.bridgebase.com

[fred]

Jlall, on Jun 8 2008, 10:56 PM, said:

Fred:

I agree with the above. To me the most likely explanation of RHO's failure to play the "obvious" spade was that he had KTxx of hearts, and thus saw no danger in the spades going away on the hearts, and just decided to tap dummy. I thought this was a strong enough inference to place him with that heart holding, and I don't think it would be obvious for LHO what to do once he was in.

Anyways I take it LHO had Kx of hearts and you found the winning line. Well done!

Better than that, the strange 2nd round 9 of hearts play apparently took RHO by surprise. He failed to play the 10 and I was now able to ruff a heart high and make an overtrick.

I suppose a strange 1st round heart to the 9 might have had the same effect

Fred Gitelman
Bridge Base Inc.
www.bridgebase.com