[inquiry]

Our options seem to be the straight forward ♣ finessee and then pull trumps, or the more esoteric rise with the ♣A, play ♦Ace -- and hope EAST was dealt Ax of hearts. If RHO gets to ruff the diamond low, we can then overruff, and hope spades are 4-3 with the person having three spades having now also the stiff ace of hearts, or if RHO has three spades, he had at most two hearts (one went on the diamond ACE another on the first round of trumps).

With the presumptive count of WEST with 5♦ to East's 2♦, the odds of the club finessee are markedly lower than 50-50 (if i had to guess, with 8 versus 11 free spaces, i would think odds of finessee winning at about 41 or 42%). The ♦A wins whenever EAST held exactly Ax of hearts, or Axx of hearts along with 3 spades, or any doubleton heart along with 3 spades, or Axxx of hearts and four or more spades, or West holding AQ doubleton heart along with three spades. This can also work if West held Qx of heart and three spades, he ruffs the fourth spade, overruff, diamond ruff, and last spade.

Those odds of those are much harder to guestimate. But the various combo's seem much better than the simple odds that the club finesse wins. Maybe a math major will help us out.

But note: West made lead from JTxxx in diamonds has at least given you an option not available at any table where a club was lead. At those tables, they will have taken the club hook. If it wins, they make 10 tricks, if it loses, they are down one. Since this in matchpoints, you can return to the "field" result for tables that got a club lead by hooking. However, since i now believe the club hook is clearly odds against, I will choose the alternative line. If it fails, I do risk down two (if EAST unexpectedly ruff a spade low while i am pitching clubs).

Also, the play at this table looks relatively "normal" for a diamond lead. Surely East (with two diamonds) has to return a trump here when he wins the spade ACE. Note: not cashing the second diamond before leading a spade would have left EAST with a "losing" option of playing back a second diamond.... but that ship sailed at trick two.

So here it is...Since i think club queen here is the losing play (with diamonds 5-2, king offside something like 57% of the time), I am going to believe their middle club, and rise with the ACE.

I will advance the diamond ace, overruffing if necessary, otherwise pitch a club.
When i overruffed, then I will play out the three top spades, throwing clubs on the first two.... if on the third one...

1- West ruffs, i over ruff (unless it is the ACE he ruffs with), then ruff a diamond, then lead the last spade for the club pitch, they can take their heart ace when they like.
2- If west follows, I throw a club and hope EAST ruffs with the ACE
3- If West shows out and not ruff, i throw a club, and play cross ruff line.

[benlessard]

Im a believer in the middle club. With the K of club LHO would probably have return a trump. (of course the fact that the T♠ was won by the A says that your S are solid) but since you tried the T of S (suggesting that you expect them to make mistakes)

[Halo]

Seems clear to cash the second diamond.

I'm a simple soul (poor MPs approach!), so I will definitely believe the club and try to discard on the diamond (not necessarily 52).

[655321]

Winning ♣A and playing ♦A looks to me to be much better.

If ♦A is ruffed low, you can overruff and play out the spades.
If RHO has 3 spades without the last small trump you are home.
If LHO ruffs the 4th spade high you can pitch the last club.
If LHO ruffs the 4th spade with the last small trump you can overrruff, ruff the last diamond to hand, and pitch the last club on the last spade.

So club finesse loses if the King is offside.
♣A loses if diamonds are 5-2, and: spades are either 5-2, or RHO started with 3 spades and all 3 small trumps.

[andy_h]

Tis a nice and interesting hand, thanks! Gotta love those intermediates