[Echognome]

Scoring: MP

P - P - P - 1♣
Dbl - 2♣ - 3♥ - 5♣
All Pass

---

East considers for some time before passing 5♣.

Opening lead: ♠K

So you get to this pushy 5♣, but it's not without hope. You win the ♠K lead, draw trumps (West 2, East 1) and try a heart hoping they will return a ♥ so you can ruff, eliminate hearts and then exit in spades to make them panic. Nope, East takes the ♥ and plays another spade. West wins and surprises you by playing a small diamond to the 8 - J and your K.

As an added wrinkle, your opponents are pretty clueless.

So what now?

[gwnn]

clueless people don't like to underlead Qxx, but QJ sec is so amazingly improbable a priori that I'll finesse.

[han]

Depends on how clueless. Bad opponents are typically not able to shift to a diamonds from Qxx(x) here so I'd play for the drop. Against opponents that are too bad even to notice that that would be dangerous I would finesse.

Against good opponents I would also finesse of course.

[mikeh]

It would help a little if you told us who played which hearts, and whether the spade J has appeared. We know that west passed originally and has shown up with the spade KQ. If we deduced, from the play to the critical point, that he also had 2 heart honours and the KQJ of spades, that would go a long way towards persuading me that East was 5=5=2=1 with QJ tight in diamonds... maybe not all the way tho

Certainly, if I could deduce KQxx AQxx (?)xx xx in west, I'd play him for xxx in diamonds, but KQxx KQxx (?)xx xx is a different story.

I would definitely cross in trump and lead the (remaining?) heart honour as a discovery play before committing in diamonds.

Against clueless opps, unless I could draw inferences as above, I'd go for the restricted choice: I hate to allow clueless bridge to go unpunished.. and I dont think clueless opps know enough to give me a losing option on purpose

[han]

My earlier post was dumb. I need to think about it again.

[TimG]

Won't a good opponent lead the Queen from Qxx (if they are going to break the suit)?

[brianshark]

I'm finessing against anyone.

[rbforster]

TimG, on Feb 19 2008, 03:18 PM, said:

Won't a good opponent lead the Queen from Qxx (if they are going to break the suit)?

Yes.

[Poky]

Drop ♦QJ!!!

4432 and 5521 patterns are improbable, that is true. But 4342 and 5611 are even more improbable. So, I would not play RHO for 2 singletons and 6-5 majors. And playing LHO has lead diamonds from ♦Qxx is absurd, in this case I cannot make my game anyway, with normal defense.

Furthermore, If I play for the drop and diamonds are Qxxx-J they are always cold for 4♥, so, it will be a good score.

[helene_t]

han, on Feb 19 2008, 09:05 PM, said:

My earlier post was dumb. I need to think about it again.

Not dumb, just clueless

Against me you better play for the drop.

I'll take the finesse over W, not only because of restricted choice but also because of his t/o double, he was probably 4432 and has most of the honors.

[whereagles]

If opps are palookas, their cards are a bit random and it's therefore not surprising that LHO has ♦Qxx... probably playing the odds will pay here, and those odds are split honors.

[MFA]

Against a good west, I will finesse. He might have deduced the entire distribution and be trying to cloud the issue with ♦Qxxx. There is no way he will compromise partner's potential ♦Q when holding three small.

Against a bad west, I will most likely also finesse, but first I will consider what have happened in ♥ and ♠.

[whereagles]

Jlall, on Feb 20 2008, 02:15 PM, said:

People act like bad players play cards at random. This is not true. They do try to think and apply a process to their game, it is just bad, hence them being bad. But they are definitely predictable and fall into "types" of bad players. Nobody plays random cards.

Maybe you can read them better than me, because the only pattern I always get right is when a palooka LHO leads low and dummy has

KJx

I rise with the K and it holds because for a palooka "It's too risky to underlead a Q, but I can gotta be unlucky if I can't make a trick with Axx."

[kfay]

This hand is crazy because what's happening in the bidding?

Did RHO bid 3♥ with 5-5 in the majors? Did LHO X with 5 spades and 4 hearts which means RHO bid 3♥ with 4=5? It seems clear to me that LHO started with 3 diamonds because otherwise this is just totally crazy. Probably LHO is 4=4=3=2 and RHO is 5=5=2=1. I finesse because if my partner doubles and I'm 5=5 with QJ live in diamonds and a stiff in opps' suit I'd be bidding more regardless of the fact that my partner is a PH. I admit I haven't looked at the vul.

Something funny has happened at this point so I think it's entirely reasonable to assume that LHO doesn't think they're beating this unless pard has the ♦K, I'm finessing.

[bid_em_up]

kfay, on Feb 20 2008, 09:55 AM, said:

Probably LHO is 4=4=3=2 and RHO is 5=5=2=1. I finesse because if my partner doubles and I'm 5=5 with QJ live in diamonds and a stiff in opps' suit I'd be bidding more regardless of the fact that my partner is a PH. I admit I haven't looked at the vul.

I think even a bad player could find a 3♣ bid when partner doubles and they are 5-5-2-1.

[Echognome]

Sorry I wasn't more specific on the honors played. RHO was indeed 5=5=2=1 with QJ tight in diamonds.

Afterwards I said I shouldn't have taken the losing option. Opponents had no idea what that meant. LHO with xxx in diamonds just said "I was hoping you had something in diamonds."

[kenrexford]

Well, if they are really clueless, I think I'll play down the clubs until I have only one left.

The opponents have to save hearts (they may think) and spades (they may think) and hearts. The person who does not have the diamond Queen may ditch these to save the hearts and spades. The person with Qx in front of A10, if that s occurring, may do something weird also.

[kfay]

Yet another case where I let a bad play by the opps get into my head. If I were to look at the hand and deduce RHO is 5=5=2=1 obviously my only hope is to play for QJ tight but now I let this play talk me out of my normal line.

BLAH!