[benlessard]

Scoring: IMP

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1S (12-14 or 18-22 unbal)-----1Nt(6+ relay)
2D (4H)------2Nt (gF)
3C (5413)-----3H (h keycards)
4C (2key no Q♥)------4S (asking for the K of clubs)
4Nt (no)------------5C (Q♠ ?)
5S (yes+Q♣ but no J♥)--------???

5Nt would be pick a slam (as suit is concerned not 6 or 7)
6C would ask for the J♠
6H & higher would be to play

The other team is B+

[kfay]

6♣

If pard has ♠J I can reasonably count 13. Bidding 7 without this card seems to be asking for trouble against a B+ team.

[cherdano]

kfay, on Jan 30 2008, 11:45 AM, said:

6♣

If pard has ♠J I can count reasonably count 13. Bidding 7 without this card seems to be asking for trouble against a B+ team.

I agree.

[mikeh]

I agree with the others. Kaplan often argued that the breakeven point for bidding a grand that might be tough to reach was 75%. If you knew that the contract was at least 75% likely to make, bid it, otherwise stay in 6. This is below that level without the ♠Jack. While I am reluctant to haul out 'So and so said...' as a justification, this is a rule that makes sense to me from personal experience. Only a month ago, my partner and I, in a mp game, bid a great grand that needed a lot of things to go wrong. Now, we were in a weak field, but our -100 was not good compared to the sea of 680s... no-one else even reached the small slam

[jdonn]

I have to admit I probably couldn't restrain myself from bidding 7 even if I "know" it might just not quite be good enough opposite a team that rates not to bid it. Partner could easily have the ten of spades and/or the jack of clubs. One thing I learned from my time playing a relay system is if you must go either low or high and can't be sure then go high, since partner often has something extra you couldn't ask for that makes your contract much better.

[benlessard]

Some math just for the fun of it.

Hearts will be 50,05 4%.
Spades will be 32,23 68%
Spades will be 41,14 28 %
partner will have the T♠ or T9♠ 3/8
partner will have the 9♠ but no T♠ 15/56

so S are friendly when
partner got the T♠ and ♠ are 41 (4 for LHO) 14% X 3/8 =84/1600
partner got the T♠ and and S are 14 (LHO have a stiff J♠) 14% X 3/8 X 1/4 = 21/1600

partner got the 9♠ and S are 41 (4 for LHO) but with J♠ or T♠ stiff in RHO 14%*15/56*1/2= 30/1600

S are friendly 68%+ 135/1600 = slighty over 76% but if we discard time where H are bad we get 73%. 73% is the number when partner doesnt have the JS.

Now if the opps are in 6H 18/20 (90% of the times) & in 6S 1/20 (5%) and not in slam 5%. (i consider their chance of being in 7H to be nul)

So lets see the Imps diff between 7H & 6H

7 make vs 6H= 11 imps * 90% * 73% = 7.2
7 is down vs 6H = -14 imps * 90% * 27% = -3.4

7 make & they are in 6S making = 11 imps * 5% * 73% * 1/2 =0.2
7 make & they are down in 6S = 3 imps * 5% * 73% * 1/2=0.05

here we only make 3 imps profit & not 17 because in 6H we would have won 14 imps anyway

7 goes down & they are in 6S going down = -14 imps * 5%* 27%= -.02
7 make & 6S is going down ! = 3 imps * 5% * 73 *1/2 = 0.05
7H goes down but 6S is making is negligeable

7 makes & they are in game = 2 imps * 5% * 73% = 0.07
7 goes down & they are in game = -22 imps * 5% * 27% = -0.3

here again we only check the imps difference between 6H & 7H. The profit between 7H & 6H is 13 imps -11 imps =2 imps The loss however is between losing 11 imps (7H down 1 vs game) and winning 11 imps 6H making 6 vs game for a total of 22 imps !

After all the calculation being in 7H instead of 6H when you dont have the ♠J seems to yield 3.5 Imps per deal wich is a lot. This is assuming game has 73% of coming home and opps will stay away from slam 1/20 and will play 6S 1/20.

The biggest danger for a grand is when opps might be in game, making the grand instead of a small will wield only 2 extra imps but risking going down instead of making a small slam is a swing of 22 imps, however if you feel the opps are going to stop in game less then 10% then dont worry too much about it and bid the grand. In this case the 73% chance of success is quite higher then the usual 56% threshold so that why its bring 3imps per deal.