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Your plan?
Arend
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A 3N problem.
#1
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Posted 2006-May-19, 16:31
Holding ♠Qx ♥K8x ♦KQ9x ♣AKxx, vulnerable vs not, you decide to bid 3N over LHO 3♠ preempt. He takes a long time to lead (good sign!), and finally chooses ♥2. Books say dummy should come down with around 7 hcp, but he is lacking one:
Your plan?
Arend
Your plan?
Arend
The easiest way to count losers is to line up the people who talk about loser count, and count them. -Kieran Dyke
#2
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Posted 2006-May-19, 16:49
I dropped in on the match just as this hand was being played, so I cannot be at all sure that I would have got this right... but I do think that the correct line can be deduced, despite the fine defence:
I think it is possible to think as follows:
[HIDDEN]LHO will not have bid or led this way with AJxx♥. RHO will not hold AQJ9(x): he would play the 9 and with 9x, LHO would have led the 9. I think that it is logical to assume that ♥ are 3-3 with AQx on your right.
Furthermore, assuming that you have 3♦ tricks, you are still well short of the goal of 9 tricks. If LHO has KJ♠, you sure are not stopping East from gaining the lead to lead through you, so you cannot hope for a second ♠ trick. Therefore, you NEED 2 ♥ tricks as well as something friendly in ♣. So you should play for the magic ♥ split.
You cannot win the 1st ♥, nor do you need to do so. Duck.
RHO switches to ♠ and you duck the 1st round.
If they continue ♠, win on dummy (perforce) to lead a ♥ to your K and return a ♥: establishing the long ♥ in dummy. If the ♣Q drops and the ♦ behave, you have scored your game.... and you would deserve all of the 'well done's' that will flow your way[HIDDEN]
I think it is possible to think as follows:
[HIDDEN]LHO will not have bid or led this way with AJxx♥. RHO will not hold AQJ9(x): he would play the 9 and with 9x, LHO would have led the 9. I think that it is logical to assume that ♥ are 3-3 with AQx on your right.
Furthermore, assuming that you have 3♦ tricks, you are still well short of the goal of 9 tricks. If LHO has KJ♠, you sure are not stopping East from gaining the lead to lead through you, so you cannot hope for a second ♠ trick. Therefore, you NEED 2 ♥ tricks as well as something friendly in ♣. So you should play for the magic ♥ split.
You cannot win the 1st ♥, nor do you need to do so. Duck.
RHO switches to ♠ and you duck the 1st round.
If they continue ♠, win on dummy (perforce) to lead a ♥ to your K and return a ♥: establishing the long ♥ in dummy. If the ♣Q drops and the ♦ behave, you have scored your game.... and you would deserve all of the 'well done's' that will flow your way[HIDDEN]
'one of the great markers of the advance of human kindness is the howls you will hear from the Men of God' Johann Hari
#3
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Posted 2006-May-19, 23:18
gotta use [/hidden] to close the tag mike. 
Is the word "pass" not in your vocabulary?
So many experts, not enough X cards.
So many experts, not enough X cards.
#4
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Posted 2006-May-19, 23:40
mikeh, on May 19 2006, 05:49 PM, said:
I think it is possible to think as follows:
As usual, excellent analysis.
Icky, icky anti-percentage contract.
#5
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Posted 2006-May-20, 06:06
i can't see how to make it if lho has either red ace, and if we mentally give rho both of those aces i can't think of any line better than mike's
"Paul Krugman is a stupid person's idea of what a smart person sounds like." Newt Gingrich (paraphrased)
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♥2-♥3-♥Q