[AceOfHeart]

At all vul imps in teams, west deals and open 4H. After 2 passes Its your turn to bid.
What do you bid here holding ♠87654 ♥2 ♦KJ ♣AkJ92 ?

The 4 hands on the next post.

[AceOfHeart]

---

[han]

I passed before seeing the whole hand. (it's nicer if you don't show it yet though)

I expect others (Luis?) to bid 4S.

[luis]

4♠.

[mikeh]

I would bid 4♠: certainly that is the bid that occurred to me before I saw the whole hand: I agree with hannie in that I really think that the whole hand should NOT be shown early. It is impossible to be objective about one's answer when one knows the outcome: so the poll will not generate accurate assessments... if that is its purpose. Of course, I tend to be braver here than at the table, where I might talk myself out of the bid. Question: if you choose 4♠, do you run after P P double? (I say not)

[Sigi_BC84]

I'm interested in hearing some of the reasons you have for calling 4♠. Repeating your votes in the thread is not very valuable :-).

What is more likely: double game swing or -100/+100 swing? I have no idea, is there a good rule of thumb or something that comes close?

I've been told that it is rarely wrong to keep bidding at goulash boards esp. if holding spades.

--Sigi

[mike777]

Sigi_BC84, on Mar 2 2006, 04:11 PM, said:

I'm interested in hearing some of the reasons you have for calling 4♠. Repeating your votes in the thread is not very valuable :-).

What is more likely: double game swing or -100/+100 swing? I have no idea, is there a good rule of thumb or something that comes close?

I've been told that it is rarely wrong to keep bidding at goulash boards esp. if holding spades.

--Sigi

Assuming spades is our best fit then:
1) Larry Cohen/Bergen advocate bidding 4s very often over 4H. In fact they consider the opp opening 4H to be a transfer bid to 4s for us.
2) Take a look at FTL "fought the law" by Lawrence.
again assuming spades is our best fit then
13-(estimated combined 2 shortest suits)-(estimated adjusted combined working hcp).
13=total tricks
-3=estimated combined 2 shortest suits.
+1 or 0 or -1 on your estimated working hcp.
+1=22-24 whcp
0=19-21 whcp
-1=16-18 whcp.
etc.

Now you can do the same estimate for the opponents hands.
13=total tricks
-?=opponents estimated two shortest suits
-?=opponents estimated adjusted working hcp.

[han]

Sigh, I admit, I'm a coward. I'll try to be braver in the future.

Do I get some credit for predicting Luis's vote, or was that too easy?

[han]

Darn, again no credit for me!

[MickyB]

mikeh, on Mar 2 2006, 08:45 PM, said:

Of course, I tend to be braver here than at the table, where I might talk myself out of the bid.

I tend to be more foolish at the table than here - I felt it was marginal when I saw the hand, so I'd undoubtedly have bid it at the table!

[AceOfHeart]

This is a twist however, these are not actually the 4 hands!

well the south and west hand are the same but the north and east hand are what i hoped to be


actual east holds ♠AJ1032 ♥108 ♦Q10965♣5

and north holds ♠9 ♥K9♦A432♣1087643


so the bidding procced 4♥ P P 4♠ P P X all pass

after which my p comment about that if i bid 4NT he would have bidded 5♣ and i should run after the dbl into 5♣!
My reply? : I never run holding a straight flush in spades!

and 4S only went down 3. With 4H going down 1 at the other table we lost 14 imps.

[han]

I don't think that any of the posters that responded here were influenced by the hands you provided. It is clear to everybody that 4S can be a double game swing but can also be a disaster, so I'm not sure what you were trying to achieve by posting these hands.

As the better players all seem to vote for 4S I believe that 4S is the right bid, and I told myself to be braver in the future.